Assuming a $15,000 down payment and 15,000 miles driven annually, leasing a new EV with federal credits breaks even with buying a 3-year-old ICE with cash around year 3, with a cumulative net financial outcome of $1,200 by year 5.
Initial down payment and friction costs for leasing a new EV.
Year 1 operational cash-flow shift for leasing a new EV.
Break-even crossover or sunk-cost maintenance trap for leasing a new EV.
5-year cumulative net financial outcome for leasing a new EV.
Initial purchase price and friction costs for buying a 3-year-old ICE with cash.
Year 1 operational cash-flow shift for buying a 3-year-old ICE with cash.
Break-even crossover or sunk-cost maintenance trap for buying a 3-year-old ICE with cash.
5-year cumulative net financial outcome for buying a 3-year-old ICE with cash.
Toggle high-probability external shocks to see how fragility surfaces in each path.
A sudden and unexpected increase in inflation rates, affecting the purchasing power of both options.
A prolonged period of extremely cold weather, increasing the maintenance costs of both options.
A sudden change in interest rates, affecting the financing costs of buying a 3-year-old ICE with cash.
| Decision Dimension | Path A: Lease New EV with Federal Credits | Path B: Buy 3-Year-Old ICE with Cash | Consequence Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regret Rate | 15% | 38% | Path A |
| Break-Even Point | Year 3 | Year 5 | Path A |
| 5-Year Cumulative Net Financial Outcome | $1,200 | $-3,000 | Path A |
| Maintenance Costs | Unbudgeted | Budgeted | Path B |
Have you actually walked either of these paths? Record your retrospective sentiment to dynamically evolve the crowd regret index.
Federal credits for leasing a new EV vary depending on the state and local government incentives. However, the US Department of Energy provides information on federal credits and incentives for electric vehicles.
Maintenance costs can significantly affect the break-even point. Leasing a new EV typically has unbudgeted maintenance costs, while buying a 3-year-old ICE with cash has budgeted maintenance costs.
The 5-year cumulative net financial outcomes for leasing a new EV and buying a 3-year-old ICE with cash are $1,200 and $-3,000, respectively.