Switching from a 6-year-old combustion SUV to a 2-year-old electric SUV reaches financial parity at month 34 for drivers covering over 14,000 km annually at $0.15/kWh. Higher upfront depreciation savings ($11,200) and zero scheduled powertrain servicing offset elevated collision insurance premiums and accelerated rear tire replacement cycles.
Avoids 38% Year-1 new EV depreciation hit; requires Level 2 home charger install.
Zero oil changes or transmission servicing; insurance runs ~12% higher.
Cumulative fuel + maintenance savings overtake upfront price premium.
Lowest total cost of ownership with factory battery warranty still active to Year 8.
Feels free today, but enters the high-wear 110,000+ km maintenance curve.
High monthly fuel outlay plus first unscheduled sensor or alternator repair.
Sunk-cost fallacy peaks: owners spend $3,000 on repairs on a car worth $6,500.
Cumulative fuel and unscheduled repairs exceed the cost of upgrading.
Toggle high-probability external shocks to see how fragility surfaces in each path.
Simulates a global oil supply shock pushing fuel up 35%.
Adds a major transmission/powertrain repair event at Year 3.
Reduces EV winter efficiency by 28% and increases heating load.
| Decision Dimension | Path A: Buy $28k Used Electric SUV | Path B: Keep & Repair 6-Yr Gas SUV | Consequence Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total 5-Year Energy/Fuel Cost | $4,860 (@ $0.15/kWh, 18k km/yr) | $14,107 (@ $1.65/L, 9.5L/100km) | Path A (Saves $9,247) |
| Unscheduled Maintenance Risk | Low (Coolant flush, cabin filter, tires) | High (Water pump, alternator, transmission) | Path A |
| Depreciation Loss (5 Yrs) | $9,400 (From $28k to $18.6k) | $3,800 (Already near residual floor) | Path B (Saves $5,600) |
| Insurance & Registration | ~$1,950/year (+14% EV repair index) | ~$1,710/year (Mature claims baseline) | Path B |
Have you actually walked either of these paths? Record your retrospective sentiment to dynamically evolve the crowd regret index.
At typical driving volumes of 15,000 to 18,000 km per year with home charging rates around $0.15/kWh, the fuel and oil maintenance savings offset the capital upgrade cost between Month 28 and Month 34.
Accelerated tire replacement. Due to heavy curb weights and instantaneous electric motor torque, OEM EV tires typically need replacement by 35,000 to 45,000 km, costing approximately $900-$1,200 for a quality set.
Sub-zero temperatures reduce EV battery range by 20% to 30% due to cabin heating and lithium cell thermodynamics, increasing winter electricity consumption by approximately 16%, but electricity remains substantially cheaper per kilometer than retail gasoline.